Many nations are drawn into wars through binding military alliances. Some alliances, like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, are public while others are assumed but confirmed once a conflict between two states escalates.

When Israel responded to Hamas’ attack on 7th October 2023, it drew Yemen (Houthis) and Lebanon (Hezbollah) into the conflict. Once Yemen fired missiles into Israel, the US and UK launched airstrikes in Yemen. Hezbollah’s military response was initially limited to the northern part of Israel resulting in an exchange of missiles.

ESCALATION.

On 1st October 2024, Israel invaded Lebanon to respond to Hezbollah striking further into Israel, and Iran fired approximately 180 missiles into Israel on the same day – a binding military alliance automatically escalates a military conflict. Israel has announced its intention to strike Iran. If there are mass casualties, then it will likely draw Russia into the conflict.

If Israel attacks Russia in response to Russia’s assumed binding agreement to defend Iran, then it likely draws China and North Korea into the conflict. The US, UK, Israel, Russia, China and North Korea each have nuclear weapons. With all these nations with binding military agreements in conflict it is foreseen not to end well – for anyone.

NUCLEAR WAR.

Once a nuclear war starts, it will likely be over within one hour. Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles can strike an adversary anywhere in the world within 30 minutes. The submarine launched hypersonic missiles will likely reach their targets within 10 minutes. The current military protocols are to launch all land-based nuclear missiles before they are struck by a counter strike.

Both the US and Russia have deployed approximately 1,700 nuclear missiles each. Russia’s weapons reportedly only targeted the members of the NATO military alliance, so Barbados and other Caribbean countries were spared – until recently.

PICKING A SIDE.

Since our Independence from the UK in 1966, our foreign policy has consistently been guided by the maxim: “friends of all, satellites of none”. Barbados became a Republic on 30 November 2021. Three months later Russia invaded Ukraine.

As the world’s newest Republic, Barbados had an exceptionally fortuitous opportunity to offer to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. We not only squandered that rare opportunity, but were exceptionally ill-advised to prejudge this complex matter, align ourselves with Ukraine and publicly oppose Russia in the United Nations General Assembly.

Instead of abstaining from voting until we heard and verified the claims from both sides, we revealed ourselves as a friend of Ukraine and an enemy of Russia. President Putin then notified all nations that that Russia was changing its rules for launching nuclear weapons and increasing their nuclear targets. Russia’s nuclear weapons are likely deployed to strike the 32 NATO member states, plus those nations recently added who aligned themselves against Russia – so we should prepare accordingly.

INITIAL IMPACT.

It is unlikely that Russia will waste a submarine launched hypersonic nuclear missile in Barbados since we have no counter-strike capabilities. Those missiles will likely be reserved for the nuclear capable US, UK, France and Israel. Therefore, we can expect to be struck by a land-based missile approximately 20 minutes later.

The likely thermonuclear impact point will be Bridgetown, where the 8 km (5 mile) diameter of death will include the military targets of the Barbados Defence Force and the Coast Guard. Most people in St Michael, Christ Church and St George will likely die upon impact or shortly thereafter.

Those south of Holetown, including in St Philip, St John, St Thomas and St Joseph will likely be in the radiation fallout zone. Radiation poisoning is likely the most painful death imaginable. The safest places will likely be north of Holetown in St Lucy, St Peter and St Andrew – the further north the better.

PREPARATIONS.

Now that we have unnecessarily placed ourselves in this vulnerable position, we need to prepare for the foreseen consequences. The Department of Emergency Management should publish guidance on how to survive. The following may be considered.

Once Barbadians have learned, through social media, that the US has been struck with a set of nuclear weapons, we will likely have at most 20 minutes to get to the safer north of the Island. The bottom two-thirds of Barbados will likely be uninhabitable for a few weeks. Therefore, the Government should construct an adequate food storage warehouse in St Andrew for the survivors.

SURVIVORS.

Those below Holetown who survive the initial impact will be most vulnerable to radiation fallout. They will likely include: those relying on public transportation, students at school, those who turn back to collect their possessions, and those who remain in gridlocked traffic as everyone tries to get north.

Those who make it north should remove their highly contaminated clothes (including shoes) and wash before moving into the safer area north of Holetown. Therefore, a clothing warehouse should also be constructed in St Andrew to store at least t-shirts, shorts and sandals. Harrison point should be outfitted to handle severe burns, and polyclinics should have Geiger Counters to test for radiation. Crab Hill Police Station should be upgraded to serve as a temporary Police Headquarters.

GOVERNANCE.

To allow a continuity of Government, either the Prime Minister or Deputy Prime Minister should reside and work in Holetown or north of Holetown. Most of those working in Police Stations, Polyclinics, Post Offices and other public buildings north of Holetown should live north of Holetown. The Ministry of Agriculture should start planting more crops north of Holetown.

These alarming recommendations are simply the consequences of Barbados publicly picking a side in a conflict between larger nations. We seem to have forgotten that when gorillaphants fight, small islands should stay out of the fray.